Have there been 2 weeks in recent presidential campaign history that have gone as badly as John McCain’s? He may have well hand delivered the election to Barack Obama with his “fundamentals of our economy are strong” line as banks were in free fall. Democrats had been hammering him on saying that in the past, but repeating it, in a time of crisis no less, was easily the biggest “gaffe” of any campaign so far. He compounded the problem with his ridiculous “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” gimmick that backfired harder than even Democrats would have expected (P.S. Mr. McCain, you said you’d “suspend” your campaign until a bail out bill was done…how’s that coming for you?). Though the pundits viewed the 1st debate as essentially a draw, by all evidence the public thought Obama won by a landslide. This comes on the heels of what may very well go down as one of the most embarrasing interviews ever given by a major political candidate as Sarah Palin looked like a total dumbass, unable to answer/understand basic questions from Katie Couric that even has respected conservatives cringing. It’s not a good sign when the public likes Tina Fey as the VP more than they like the VP herself. And if you thought things couldn’t get any worse for McCain, the polling this week has been stunning. I work in the polling business. There are always outliers. But when pluralities of the polls show vast, eye-popping gains for Obama in such a short period of time I can guarantee you that the McCain campaign isn’t a happy place to be tonight. I’ve always said that the economy would be what kicks McCain in the teeth and that Democrats should be running his “I don’t understand economics” quotes ad nauseum. Who would have thought that McCain would be the one to kick his own teeth? I mean, Florida? Obama should not be winning Florida right now. End of story. I’ll let you in on a little polling industry secret: the conventional wisdom is that if McCain is not leading Florida by at least 5 points, then he’s in deep, deep trouble. Florida is a state that is, literally, a microcosm of the country. It has major populations of every age demographic and ethnic group. And unlike California, it is a much more “moderate” state. In other words, it doesn’t tip dramatically to the liberal or conservative side of the coin. It’s a good 45-45-10 state. And if McCain is losing it a month before the election….they’ll need a major event to shake up the race.

Could this event come tomorrow night? Maybe. Sarah Palin has zero expectations. Joe Biden has the expectation of Obama’s base to end the race. Obama supporters want Joe to lay the hammer down and dismantle Palin for the vapid moron we think she is. Of course, it’s Joe Biden and who knows what may or may not come out of his mouth. I watched a debate where Palin played the victim card and used the “You big bad man! Stop being condescending towards me” card. I expect her to do something similar tomorrow.

I was quizzing my mom about Palin while we were at Hu-Hot this afternoon. My mom isn’t political. She gets her news from “The View” and the “Today Show”, hasn’t voted since she was 18 (”they’re all crooks”. I do not have a family of voters) and generally doesn’t pay any attention unless something major has happened that engulfs all of the media so as to make it impossible for her not to hear about it. I asked her what she thought of Palin and surprisingly, her response kind of threw me aback. Paraphrasing, she said “As a mother, I find her to be incredibly selfish. She has a special needs baby and she is running for vice president? Every time I see that baby on TV, it’s being held by somebody else and looks like a prop. It’s like she’s having other people take care of it. She should give her attention to the baby, not the country.” I’m not a mother and couldn’t even begin to see from this perspective. But it really hit me. I mean, this was the first thing that came out of my mom’s mouth. It’s that visceral reaction, similar to Jermiah Wright, but whereas Obama was a separate entity that could, i don’t know, be compartmentalized in a way from Wright, that’s not the case with Palin. Maybe this helps explain a portion of the dramatic drop in female support she now receives? I mean, I don’t know, but I’d be curious to know how many mothers would care for a special needs child while also campaign to be the Vice President?

But off that tangent and back to Joe Biden. What’s he gotta do? It’s simple: ignore Sarah Palin unless she directly engages him and answer every question in terms of “John George Bush III McCain”. DON’T EVEN MENTION PALIN’S NAME OTHER THAN TO COMPLEMENT HER BEFORE RAMMING A SHORTSWORD INTO MCCAIN’S SIDE. Biden will not be allowed to attack Palin herself. The media will make sure of that. But he can attack McCain mercilessly. Palin will self-destruct on her own. Her image has been so tarnished that the only way she can get it back is if Biden gives it back to her. You can guarantee that Biden knows things about McCain’s record that Palin has no idea about (you can only cram so much, right?). Assault McCain on his record, then let Palin ramble nonsensically if she is asked to rebut Biden’s charge. I’m not really concerned about Biden being able to rebut anything that Palin says. Even conservatives agree that Biden can handle just about anything thrown at him in a debate.

This is also the #1 reason that Joe Biden was selected, in my eyes, for VP. It was for this debate. Most Obama supporters thought he’d have to go up against a rhetorical heavyweight like Mitt Romney, but Palin offers the perfect opportunity for Biden to skewer McCain every which way in front of what will likely be an audience bigger than what tuned into the Obama-McCain debate. There is such a curiosity factor to what happens tomorrow night that I expect an incredible television audience.  And this is where Biden can hammer the final nail into the coffin (at least, from the point of view of Obama supporters). Right now, the country is tilting heavily towards Obama. The economy is crushing McCain right now and the fact that he blew his last chance to be this mythical “Maverick” we hear so much about by voting yea on the bail out bill costs him a powerful card he could have played: voting nea and showing up Obama. I can tell you, Democrats were fearing McCain would vote no. Because that would have immediately shifted the media narrative to “McCain stands with Main Street and opposes Big Government”. Instantly, all of gains that Obama made the past couple of weeks could have been erased. Instead, McCain ceded the issue to Obama by voting for it, thus taking an incredible political opportunity for him off the table (can’t really blame Obama for big government when you voted for the very same thing he did, can you?).

So right now, the country is running to Obama. Early voting is open all over the country right at the very time that Biden and Palin are set to debate. Assuming there will be huge ratings, Biden could conceivably destroy John McCain in front of a national television audience if he doesn’t do anything stupid. And that’s all she wrote, folks. If the narrative of tomorrows debate is “Biden hammers McCain” instead of “Biden hammers Palin”, then it’s over. Biden doesn’t have to worry about a Mitt Romney sparring with him on the same rhetorical level and getting distracted into a tit-for-tat. Instead, he’s got free reign to dominate the discussion….IF he doesn’t do or say anything dumb. Remember, no matter the results, McCain’s camp will spin this as some sort of a condescending, belittling, sexist performance. All Biden needs to do is come off calm, collected, gracious towards Palin, and a pitbull (without lipstick) towards McCain. Personally, I don’t think Biden will screw this up. After all, this is why he was selected. He’s not going to blow his time in the spotlight. Finish the job, Joe.

I’d be interested to hear what you guys think of this analysis. So, who ya got tomorrow night?

p.s. I’ve got a stupid geography class tomorrow night. I’m going to miss the damn debate

Filed under: MaT's Journal, MaT's stuff