Well, we’re officially 1 day out from the 2008 presidential election. Barring Barack murdering somebody on live television tomorrow, I think it’s safe to come out with final predictions.
Gallup was buzzing today because of these final numbers. I can tell you that the reaction was one of amazement and fear. Amazement that Barack Obama got that sort of number and fear that it can’t possibly be right, can it? Maybe it’s because the last 2 presidential elections have been so close, but getting a double-digit result in the final poll causes even the best pollsters to lose sleep at night. If the poll is right, you get the glory. If it’s wrong, it’ll be a massive embarrasment. Consider this for a moment, John McCain hasn’t led in any single poll since September. Go ahead. Scroll down the list. That’s just mind blowing. Conservative pollsters, liberal pollsters, and independent pollsters all have shown the exact same thing: an Obama win. So if John McCain does indeed pull off a victory on Tuesday night, it will mean that the entire polling industry was wrong. Everybody. And not only was everybody wrong, but they’ve been wrong for the past 2 months. Think about it, there hasn’t even been an outlier that has shown John McCain in front. In other words, if McCain wins, the entire polling industry is going to be thrown into upheaval and there will be a lot of soul searching due to the tattered perceptions of the public (and really, who would ever trust a poll again?)
Which leads me to my predictions. Do I think that Obama is going to win the popular vote? Yes. I don’t think there is any doubt about that. Even in McCain holds all of the “red states” his margin of victory won’t be much and Obama will run up the score in California, Illinois, and New York. Now, do I think he’ll win by double digits? No. For some reason I just can’t believe that is actually going to happen. I see a 3 or 4 point popular vote victory. I’d love to believe the final Gallup poll, and I hope it comes to pass, but it says an awful lot when Gallup people are sort of in disbelief at their own results. They think he’ll win, but 11 points? To put that in perspective, George Bush beat John Kerry by 2%…and won by 3 million votes. An 11 point victory would give Obama a Reagan sized victory. Again, maybe it’ll happen, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
As for the individual states, I think McCain will narrowly win Ohio and Florida. Obama will win Pennsylvania. I’m suspicious of Virgina. I know every poll shows Obama winning, but something doesn’t feel right to me. I’m going to predict a McCain win in Virginia. I think Obama will win it in the west, taking Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. I don’t believe he’s actually close in Montana or North Dakota as those will go to McCain. Georgia is going to McCain. My potential election night surprise is North Carolina. African-American turnout in that state is unreal so far. How great would it be to have a southern state go for the first black candidate?
In the end, I’m predicting a much closer race than everyone else: Obama 273 McCain 265 with a clear popular vote victory for Barack.
So who ya got? Post your predictions.
Also, Just a note for everyone, we will be having a very special Dead Politics Election Night Special. I know that Deejay and I will be there and hopefully a couple of the other Splattercasters as well. We’re going to be using blog talk radio so everyone can call in with their thoughts on the results! You can listen to us at 10 p.m. Central Time Tuesday night right here. Celebrate democracy with Dead Lantern.com!
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